A quick science quiz

I've not posted a quiz for a while, so have a go at this one. Just to keep you on your toes over a coffee break.

Via A Simple Prop. Grow into these trousers... >>

LRO, first images from the Moon

These pictures from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter were released a few days ago but lack of time has made me slow posting.

They were taken just at sunrise so the shadows are deep and only high ground is illuminated (or is it sunset? North is down in these photos the Sun is to the left and the Moon rotates once a month and blah... I can't visualise it just now).

But get this, the field is a 1400m square. That's a lot less than a mile across, and the LRO hasn't got down to its final orbit yet. Nowhere near. At a guess the two craters with brightly lit rims; a bit to the right, above and below the center line, are round about 50m across. This is just a test of the systems. The best is yet to come.

Investigate below the belt for another photo and a movie!



And the good people at the Goddard Space Center have assembled a movie. Oooo!

NASA | HD Lunar Flyover of the First Images from the LRO Camera
Grow into these trousers... >>

1971 plane crash survivor tells her story

Leading on from our discussion on surviving a plane crash:

Miracle or Pure Luck?
On the question of miracles

Via Skepchick I found this recent news report:

Survivor still haunted by 1971 air crash.

"She became known as the miracle girl and was hounded by Peruvian media, receiving hundreds of letters from people she had never met before".

Her harrowing story makes no mention of the supernatural though. Grow into these trousers... >>

Waggle Dance

Before I retire to bed, I must sing the praises of the Wells and Young's Brewing Company for their Waggle Dance.

It's a well balanced pale beer with a pleasant, flowery, summer taste. Made with honey, they say. Yeah, I can taste that. Another nice find down the cheap aisle.

And iitz qwkwwite stromge. Grow into these trousers... >>

On the question of miracles

Last week at The Mad Hatters, Julie posted about the tragic loss of an airplane over the Indian Ocean. One young girl survived.

Julie asked - Miracle or Pure Luck?

I replied that, amazing and improbable doesn't mean impossible. Then I tried to give an analogy involving the unanticipated failure of a 'splonking plate rivet', and was that miraculous? It was late and I was a bit drunk, so maybe it wasn't the best example to choose (that's my excuse anyway).

Julie then said a very unexpected thing: "isn’t a miracle meant to be a good thing"?

Hmm, I've been thinking about this and I have to disagree. Here's why.

A certain New Testament figure healed a few individuals and raised one man from the dead John 11:39-47 - that's good (rather unimpressive though given today's medical knowledge. OK Lazarus was 4 days dead and buried, but these days people are routinely spared death by drowning or heart attacks etc when previously they would have been declared dead. I do not consider good medical practice to be miraculous).

He turned water into wine John 2:1-11. Well that's good I suppose, for the wedding guests at least.

He walked on water John 6:16-21 Not good or bad, unless there was a long term good from this which I've missed because of my limited knowledge of scripture.

The same figure cursed a fig tree so that it withered Mark 11:12-21. Definitely bad, for the tree anyway, and rather childish too for the son of a god.

And why did he have to put one man's demons into pigs? Mark 5:1-16 Forgetting the fate of the 2000 pigs, he just destroyed the livelihood of some unknown person(s). 2000 pigs! Was there any payment for that loss? How many people starved the next year because of that action? Definitely bad. Not just for the pigs but for the whole community.

And let's leave out the miraculous plagues and smitings of the OT. (smites, smotes smootes, smits, smuts, smottens?)

I stand by my 'rivet' analogy though. You see... remember the girl who survived the aircrash, maybe her seatbelt rivets were above average strong. Other people were catapulted around, she was restrained till the last moment and she hit the water largely unscathed. I don't know. Maybe her seatbelt rivets were below standard and came loose early. She was catapulted through an open door, because the door had failed, but then she hit the water 2 seconds later; lost in the ocean but largely unhurt.

Maybe she wasn't bleeding much, and managed to cling to some flotsam so she was not kicking her legs to stay afloat. The sharks ignored her for more obvious meat. Any which way, the rescue services came and she lives to tell the tale. No supernatural miracle. And I am not trying to trivialise her survival. May all luck go with her.

Hopefully from her counselling in trauma recovery, or perhaps not, some relevant details can be passed back to the air crash investigators. I do not mean she should be grilled about it, but anything she may remember may add to knowledge for future aircraft safety.

Back to miracles.
Now, I don't have duncanr's story telling ability, but just imagine:

You have been invited to a party, It's a long journey so you give yourself plenty of time. However, just as you climb into the shower there's a power cut. Never mind, you have a sluice down under the cold tap and continue getting ready. Then the zipper goes on your favourite outfit. Curses - find something else to wear. You are starting to rush when, for no reason, one of your contact lenses pops out. A few more curses later you decide wear your glasses, but they aren't where you thought you'd put them. After a frantic hunt you remember you left them in the car; now where are your keys? Eventually you find them in the fridge where you'd put them down while unpacking your groceries. Etc, etc... I could go on and on... But eventually you arrive at the party. Someone inquires about your journey.

"Don't ask!" You reply, "it's a bloody miracle I'm here".

This is simply a figure of speech, the same as a 'miraculous escape', it merely implies the improbable.

So what are real miracles?

Is it like this?
Fox News Miracle


Or is it like this? Lourdes

Quoting Wikipedia:

"On 11 February 1858, a 14-year-old local girl, Bernadette Soubirous, claimed a beautiful lady appeared to her in the remote Grotto of Massabielle. The lady later identified herself as "the Immaculate Conception" and the faithful believe her to be the Blessed Virgin Mary. The lady appeared 18 times, and by 1859 thousands of pilgrims were visiting Lourdes".

"An estimated 200 million people have visited the shrine since 1860, and the Roman Catholic Church has officially recognized 67 miraculous healings which are stringently examined for authenticity and authentic miracle healing with no physical or psychological basis other than the healing power of the water".

OK, 67 healings from 200 million visits, that's a success rate of about 1 in 3 million, or 0.0000335%. Hardly impressive given that on rare occasions people spontaneously recover from serious illnesses for which medical science has no cure, or an attempted cure failed (cancer can naturally go into remission for instance). Compare this to a control group of 200,000,000 people and how many would have survived naturally with no divine intervention? I guess a lot more than 67. Miracles at Lourdes are a piss take. I would love to see the criteria which the Catholic Church uses to judge such phenomena.

What would convince me? An amputee regrowing a lost limb after 'taking the waters'. How many times has this happened? Never, not once, not even half a finger or a bit of an earlobe.

I have to ask, Why won't God heal amputees? Grow into these trousers... >>

A thought for a Sunday

"The correct scientific response to something that is not understood must always be to look harder for the explanation, not give up and assume a supernatural cause".


— Sir David Attenborough (b 1926) Grow into these trousers... >>

A hectic weekend

Things are really busy round here just now. It's Cleckheaton Folk Festival this weekend and tonight I'm joining in with a crowd of other musicians for a mass jamming session, then our band is playing live tomorrow, as part of the counterinsurgent NAFF (Not a F**king Folk) Festival for those who are not enamoured of the folk music idiom.

We're doing this for free to raise cash towards the next project. Sending 5 bands, a mobile stage, lighting rig and a 20kW sound system to a military base near Newcastle. The guys there will soon be leaving for a tour of duty in Afghanistan and we want to throw them a huge party before they go.

I am not in favour of warfare but when orders are given I fully support our troops. On the ground, water or in the air, I wish them all a safe return. Grow into these trousers... >>

Laugh and be educated

Just before he died, the much missed Douglas Adams gave the following talk about his experiences tracking down endangered species. I have never seen this video before, though Adams' Last Chance To See is an old favoutite.

You don't really need to watch, just listen, there are no slides or photos. It's simply Adams talking, mainly without notes, and the stage lighting could have been better.

But in his talk, Adams recapitulates and updates Last Chance. It's '''king brilliant!!!

However it's an hour and a half long so get comfy, with refreshment close at hand, and enjoy. If you listen to nothing else, make it the 'Yangtze river dolphin' from 43:45ish onwards.

Douglas Adams: Parrots the Universe and Everything

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Via Skepchick. Grow into these trousers... >>

Swine flu warning

If you receive an email claiming you can catch swine flu from eating a certain tinned pork product, you can safely ignore it and delete the message.

It's spam. Grow into these trousers... >>

It's a hot night

And very muggy. We need a thunderstorm to clear the air. However, on the positive side, it reminded me of this tune:

Budapest - Jethro Tull
Grow into these trousers... >>